10.2 Likely future trends

The window of opportunity to secure a positive future for the Reef is closing rapidly. Multiple habitats, species, and ecosystem processes remain healthy or capable of recovery in the absence of acute disturbances, and the Reef retains its outstanding universal value as a World Heritage Area. Nevertheless, ongoing trends point to further deterioration of the Region’s values if the highest risk threats are not effectively mitigated.

The window of opportunity to secure a positive future for the Reef is closing rapidly

The prognosis for an increasing disturbance regime linked to global climate change underscores the critical need for deep, rapid and sustained reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions to limit temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming, or as close as possible.1100 Limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (with no or limited overshoot) requires achieving global net-zero carbon dioxide emissions in the early 2050s, followed by net-negative carbon dioxide emissions.2157 Local actions to reduce cumulative pressures on the Reef, maintain ecosystem condition, and facilitate recovery, remain imperative to a positive long-term outlook for the Region.

References
  • 1100. Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority 2024, Position statement: Climate change, Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, Townsville.
  • 2157. IPCC 2022, Summary for Policymakers, in Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, eds P.R. Shukla, J. Skea, R. Slade, A. Al Khourdajie, R. van Diemen, et al., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. n Press.