10. Long-term outlook

The long-term outlook for the Reef will depend on decisions and actions taken at a global level to address climate change, and on effective management of threats to the Region’s values. The threats are multiple, cumulative, and intensifying, so management approaches must be constantly evolving and agile (Box 10.1). The urgency of responding to threats currently facing the Reef, combined with the limited time and resources available, compels management to identify, prioritise and safeguard key species, habitats or processes that will enhance the resilience of the Reef ecosystem, including potential climate refugia.²¹⁶⁰ Finding more effective ways to plan for, and respond to, changing environmental and social conditions is essential.

This assessment of the long-term outlook for the Region’s ecosystem and its heritage value includes consideration of current management arrangements and relevant management initiatives identified but not yet fully implemented (Figure 10.4). The future initiatives under the Reef 2050 Plan, the Great Barrier Reef Blueprint for Climate Resilience and Adaptation ¹⁹⁸⁴ (Blueprint 2030), and the Reef 2050 Water Quality Improvement Plan ¹⁸⁸³ and Reef 2050 Traditional Owner Implementation Plan ¹¹²⁰ set the framework for improving resilience-based management and protection of values. Also considered are the future commitments of the Australian and Queensland governments and partners under the Reef 2050 Plan.

Significant management initiatives continue to protect values and support resilience of the Region. Despite this, and the documented recovery of some key habitats and species (Chapter 8), overall resilience is being challenged. The scientific evidence is clear: the most urgent initiatives are those that will halt and reverse climate change and those that will effectively improve water quality at the regional scale. International forums, national and state energy transition agendas, and partnerships at all levels provide opportunity for advocacy and encouragement around transformative actions for emissions reduction.¹⁹⁸⁴ Further improvements in water quality, protecting and restoring supporting coastal habitats, and reducing fishing pressure on certain fish stocks will support the resilience of the Reef ecosystem in the face of climate change threats. In addition, recent evidence confirms that controlling crown-of-thorns starfish populations represents an essential management tool for enhancing Reef resilience.

Engagement: Continued productive working relationships between management partners (Traditional Owners and government agencies) and a diverse range of Reef stakeholders provide a collective understanding of the conditions (and trends in condition) of key values across the Region, the pressures affecting the Reef and shifting societal attitudes.  

Australian and Queensland government agencies, Traditional Owners, Reef industries and many other partners continue to make significant contributions to protecting and managing the Region. Agreements such as the Great Barrier Reef Intergovernmental Agreement ¹³⁰⁰ form the basis of effective partnerships and collaboration between the Australian and Queensland Governments and associated agencies. Traditional Owner engagement has increased through the expanded Traditional Use of Marine Resources Agreements program, policy commitments to co-management, and strengthened communication between managers and Traditional Owners (Box 10.2). There are also continued, strong and growing connections between research and decision-making bodies. 

Stakeholders and community members are involved at multiple levels. Advisory bodies, such as the Reef Authority’s Local Marine Advisory Committees, Indigenous Reef Advisory Committee, and Tourism Reef Advisory Committee provide advice to management about local and Reef-wide management. The Australian and Queensland governments also receive advice regarding the Reef 2050 Plan and related issues from a Reef 2050 Advisory Committee and an Independent Expert Panel. 

Stewardship programs, such as the Reef Guardians program, empower schools and local government councils within the Region to build their capacity to protect the Reef. Citizen science programs such as Eye on the Reef assist management and science through the provision, by tourism operators and others, of information on species of conservation concern or major events (such as coral bleaching). Monitoring information from these groups feeds into decision-support systems that guide management decisions to benefit the Region (Box 10.1). Community groups are also active in delivering local management actions, such as removing marine debris and responding to marine animal strandings.

Stewardship within the Region and continued on-ground initiatives to reduce risks and improve Reef and Catchment health are important and are making a collective difference. This continued approach will provide a strong foundation for maintaining a balance between protecting the Region’s values and supporting sustainable use.

Environmental regulation: Effective education and enforcement of current management tools, such as Acts, regulations, zoning plans, plans of management and permits, continue to be critical in reducing direct risks to the Region and supporting resilience of the Reef. The Reef Authority’s Policy and Planning Strategic Roadmap (2019) ¹¹⁸⁸ has been developed to ensure policies and plans are pro-active, contemporary and risk-based, which will help managers ensure people continue to use and access the Reef in a sustainable manner. The Australian Government’s Nature Positive Plan: Better for the Environment, Better for Business ²⁰¹¹ aims to strengthen and streamline the national environmental laws in response to an independent review of the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 (Cth) (EPBC Act). Australia’s commitment to emissions reductions is now legislated under the Climate Change Act 2022 (Cth). The Queensland Government has continued their significant fisheries reform process, including legislative changes to prohibit the take of hammerhead sharks and phase-out gillnet fishing in the Region by 2027, as well as implementing harvest strategies and improving data collection and independent data validation.

Significant investment in the Reef Joint Field Management Program has increased the capability of marine and island national park management and enabled delivery of field activities identified in the Reef 2050 Plan and Blueprint 2030. The program’s on-water capacity has been drastically increased, growing from an annual base funding commitment of $17 million in 2017–18 to more than $38 million in 2020–21.⁷² This funding will see more than a 60 per cent increase in staffing and an enhanced vessel fleet of more than 21 vessels. These resources will enable an increased focus on compliance, island and reef rehabilitation activities, incident response, collaboration with Traditional Owners to deliver field activities, and engagement with Reef and island users.

There has also been significant investment through the Queensland Reef Water Quality Program to support ongoing implementation of the Reef protection regulations and the Reef 2050 Water Quality Implementation Program.

Knowledge, integration and innovation: The independent review on the existing protection and management of the Region (Chapter 7) again rated managers’ understanding of the Region as the strongest element of the management cycle. This reflects a strong understanding of Reef values, national and international influences, and relevant government and non-government actors. Nevertheless, known and emerging gaps in knowledge (including around threats, their effects and suitable management approaches) present an ongoing challenge.

Following the Outlook Report 2019, key gaps in scientific and other knowledge of the Region were identified. The high-priority gaps needed to inform evidence-based decision-making and help improve management and protection strategies over the long-term were summarised into a report, Science and Knowledge Needs for Management.¹³⁸⁶ This report sets out the Reef Authority’s priority information needs and is supported by an interactive tool on the online Reef Knowledge System (Box 10.3). The National Environmental Science Program continues to contribute to filling priority knowledge gaps. A recent project explored evaluation of recreational fishing behaviour, use, values and motivations that relate to compliance.

First Nations people have cared for Land and Sea Country for many generations. Integrating traditional knowledge and cultural science into decision-making will be important to inform future adaptive management of the Reef and Catchment. Critical to achieving this will be fostering greater participation of Traditional Owners in decision-making, increasing their access to the Reef, and enhancing their on-ground capacity and opportunities.

Agile approaches are needed to protect key values and prevent human use patterns becoming unsustainable and hard to manage. Access to relevant information on biological and human dimensions will be key to supporting evolving policies and spatial planning. To do this, managers require up-to-date spatial and temporal information on how people use and value the Region, and the condition of associated local environmental, Indigenous, historic and social heritage values. Effective collaboration and partnerships with a network of providers will ensure best-available science continues to underpin management and allow evaluation of the effectiveness of actions.

Developing ways to understand and respond to the effects of cumulative impacts remains paramount. While implementation of the Reef-wide Cumulative Impact Management Policy (released in 2018) ²¹⁴⁹ is underway, cumulative impact management of multiple uses in and adjacent to the Region remains a challenge.^11,1982  Escalating climate change pressures have heightened the importance of implementing this policy and progressing contemporary spatial planning in the Region and Catchment.

Implementing a Reef-wide integrated monitoring and reporting program directly linked to an outcomes-based management framework will underpin adaptive management. The Reef 2050 Integrated Monitoring and Reporting Program (RIMReP) aims to address integrated information needs for future management of the Reef (Box 10.3).

Given the increasing frequency of acute and chronic stressors, timely information on the health of key indicators (species, processes, and human dimension values) and their trajectories over time and space is critical. Indicators for ecosystem health and community wellbeing are being developed through RIMReP to measure condition (and trend in condition) of values. Good alignment between what is measured, how it relates to relevant thresholds, and how it meets the desired outcomes for the Region’s values provides the most powerful insight. For example, a holistic metric of seagrass resilience has been developed based on measurable biological characteristics that exemplify seagrass resistance to pressures and essential mechanisms for recovery (Section 8.3.2).²⁰⁶³ A similar metric for coral that expands on conventional measures, such as coral cover, is under development.^2055,2056

It is still essential to investigate intervention strategies and technologies that are scalable and effective at improving the resilience of Reef habitats. For example, the Reef Restoration and Adaptation Program is investigating and developing coral reef intervention techniques that can be feasibly applied at sufficient scale to have a positive effect on Reef condition. This will require a combination of discovery research and applied field testing. Information on how intervention activities can be effective at scale, while minimising harm, is important for researchers, managers, and the community. Given the connection to, and value of, the Region for Traditional Owners and the community, those undertaking intervention activities must understand and consider social attitudes.

Investment in innovative field-based and desktop technologies is needed to support improvements in monitoring and management. Emerging technologies (Section 6.2.3) are increasingly enabling managers to monitor remote and inaccessible parts of the Region. Increasing use of drones, night vision and vessel tracking will increase surveillance and enforcement of Reef rules. Drones continue to provide increased and cheaper monitoring capability and aerial mapping. Environmental DNA is being explored as a means of quantifying species presence and diversity more quickly and affordably than conventional methods. Innovation by individuals and within businesses can broadly support decarbonisation of the Australian economy and can help drive positive actions by setting examples for others. For example, the actions in the Reef Authority’s Sustainability Strategy include a detailed roadmap to reducing emissions by the agency to net zero by 2030.^2165,2166 Similarly, the Queensland Department of Environment, Science and Innovation’s emissions reduction efforts link to various Queensland strategies and plans.^85,2167,2168