10. Long-term outlook

The Great Barrier Reef remains a wonder of the natural world, but it faces an uncertain future. Rising global temperatures are driving unprecedented changes to key habitats, species and ecosystem processes. These will inevitably result in impacts to Reef-dependent human communities. Actions taken now could reduce these effects, if implemented well. 

The Region’s current outlook remains one of continued deterioration. Warming already locked into the global climate system will have profound effects on the Region’s ecosystems over the next decade and beyond, and unchecked warming would be devastating for the Reef. The window of opportunity for changing direction is closing rapidly. Only the strongest and fastest possible actions to decrease global greenhouse gas emissions will reduce the risks and limit the impacts of climate change on the Reef. Timely and effective management actions taken now can dramatically alter potential futures.  

Although some changes are occurring gradually, most of the outcomes of steadily rising greenhouse gas concentrations are experienced as extreme events. Among the most pressing and inevitable of these are widespread marine heatwaves that can cause mass bleaching and death of corals and affect a range of other species and habitats on a Region-wide scale. Historically such events have been rare, but the chances of them occurring increase with every increment of global warming. Periods with relatively few acute disturbances, such as the past five years, provide vital recovery windows, but these temporary reprieves will become fewer and shorter for as long as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise. Efforts to enhance the resilience of Reef ecosystems are vital, as they enable better resistance and recovery from disturbances. The identification and protection of places (including climate refugia), habitats, species and ecosystem processes critical for resilience is also urgent.

The Region was at a crossroads in 2009, with an opportunity for the right decisions to protect the Reef into the future. Since then, the global community has made uneven progress towards the decarbonisation objectives articulated in the Paris Agreement of 2015. The Reef is a global icon at imminent threat if climate objectives are not met, and even if they are, every increment of additional warming will bring additional consequences. Resilience-based management and effective interventions at the right scales may buy time for the Reef while global efforts to decrease greenhouse gas are effectively implemented.

Across the Region and at local scales, it is imperative that management actions continue to address compounding threats and everything possible is done to create recovery windows for the Reef. The Reef 2050 Plan has continued to drive action across the management of land-based runoff, sustainable fisheries management and crown-of-thorns starfish control. Direct management actions can reduce pressures and localised ecosystem recovery has been observed in some areas, but it is slow. Current efforts that are effective in ensuring that use is sustainable and compliant with environmental protection rules should be continued. Catchment management actions aimed at reducing pollution in land-based runoff have gradually reduced pollutants in some locations, but the accelerated change required is yet to be achieved. Catchment population growth is likely to increase people’s use of the Reef. Marine policies and planning that aim to protect representative and potential refuge areas while allowing for multiple uses will need to be agile and responsive to changing use patterns and disturbances.

Many existing arrangements and activities are in place to support the Reef’s resilience including zoning plans, regulations and permissions, and the Crown-of-thorns Starfish Control Program. Multi-agency efforts to explore tangible and scalable reef interventions may lead to a suite of innovative and targeted measures that could provide options for management in the future. The success of these interventions will depend on favourable Reef conditions for growth and recovery, which will not occur unless the rate of anthropogenic climate change is halted and reversed. 

It is essential that the management of the Region is adaptive as the extent and seriousness of different risks to the Reef change over time. Difficult choices will need to be met head on and more often. Managers may need to change how some things are done, try new approaches, and let go of some longstanding practices. Reef management will increasingly require new and evolving decision support tools. 

The social heritage values of the Great Barrier Reef are affected by the condition of the ecosystem, changes to social conditions and human interactions with the Reef. The economic and social benefits the Reef provides to all people who value, enjoy or depend on it will be impacted. Broad, multi-jurisdictional management actions that involve the community and behaviour change will be important in maintaining resilience of social heritage values. People continue to see the Reef as part of their personal and national identity and value its importance. There is an expressed willingness to undertake actions for Reef health, which in turn, supports human wellbeing. Translating this willingness into action requires overcoming acknowledged feelings of uncertainty and a general lack of specific knowledge in how to help address and mitigate these threats on a personal level.

The enduring and intrinsic connection Traditional Owners have to Sea Country is being affected by changes in the Reef’s condition. Traditional Owners are increasingly reasserting their role in Sea Country management and the protection of Indigenous heritage across the Region. The condition (and trend in condition) of Indigenous heritage values are intrinsically linked to natural heritage values. Knowledge of other components of Indigenous heritage condition remains limited. Adoption and implementation of co-management principles with Traditional Owners will benefit both natural and heritage values of the Reef.

The Reef is already a changed system, and communities and industries that depend on it must prepare for continued change. As a social–ecological system, the health of the Reef ecosystem will continue to have both impacts on, and benefits for, the community and human wellbeing (socially, culturally, and economically). Society will need to play a pivotal and urgent role in mitigation and adaptation to support the Region’s resilience. The future Reef will be vastly altered by climatic changes that already set in motion, but just as every increment of warming will compound impacts, every effective action taken now contributes to a more positive long-term outlook.