Grading statements — Risks
Given current management arrangements, any threats considered likely or certain to occur are predicted to have no more than insignificant consequences for the Region's ecosystem or heritage values. There may be minor or moderate consequences for the Region's ecosystem or heritage values for other less likely threats.
Given current management arrangements, few of the threats considered likely or certain to occur are predicted to have moderate consequences for the Region's ecosystem or heritage values and none will have catastrophic consequences. Some unlikely threats may have major consequences for the Region's ecosystem or heritage values.
Given current management arrangements, many of the likely or almost certain threats are predicted to have moderate or major consequences for the Region's ecosystem or heritage values.
Given current management arrangements, there are likely or almost certain threats that are predicted to have catastrophic consequences for the Region's ecosystem or heritage values.
or
Borderline Indicates where a component or criterion is considered close to satisfying the adjacent grading statement.
Confidence
Adequate high-quality evidence and high level of consensus
Limited evidence or limited consensus
Inferred, very limited evidence
Overall risk to the ecosystem — Natural heritage values:
Threats to the Region’s ecosystem are multiple, compounded and expected to pose increasing risk, putting the ecosystem at very high risk. The most serious risks are from threats associated with climate change, coastal development, land-based runoff and some aspects of direct use (such as illegal fishing and extraction).
Overall risk to heritage values — Indigenous, historic, and other heritage values
Heritage values are at very high and increasing risk. The close connection between many heritage and ecosystem values means the risk from most threats is the same for heritage values as for the ecosystem. Additional high risk threats, particularly for Indigenous values, are fragmentation of cultural knowledge, foundational capacity gaps and behaviours affecting heritage values.
Ecosystem:
Climate change related threats continue to pose significant risks to the Region. Impacts are increasingly challenging the resilience of key species and habitats.
Heritage:
Climate change poses a serious risk to both tangible and intangible Indigenous heritage, the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area’s outstanding universal value, as well as historic heritage sites.
Ecosystem
Coastal development remains a serious risk to the Region. Legacy impacts, such as barriers to flow, and modification of coastal habitats continue to affect connectivity and species requiring specific habitats within the Region. Impacts from artificial light continue from urban and industrial areas, and population growth may lead to further coastal development.
Heritage
Changes to the ecosystem of the Region and Catchment could interrupt the flow of storylines across the landscape. The connectivity for some totemic species may also be affected. Many Indigenous and historic heritage values are irreplaceable and may be lost where additional modification of coastal habitats occurs in the future. Changes to the coastal environment affect the aesthetic attributes contributing to the Reef’s outstanding universal value.
Ecosystem
Key threats associated with land-based runoff continue to pose a serious risk to the ecosystem via ongoing input of pollutants, such as sediments, nutrients, pesticides and marine debris. Risk levels for some threats may decrease when implemented Catchment management practices and programs are adequately resourced and outcomes become apparent after inherent time lags.
Heritage:
Marine debris that washes up in culturally important areas and sacred sites can injure or kill marine animals and birds of Indigenous cultural significance through entanglement or ingestion. Pesticide runoff may have adverse effects on some culturally important species. Changes to the environment will affect the aesthetic attributes contributing to the Reef’s outstanding universal value.
Ecosystem:
Threats to the Region’s ecosystem values from direct use range from low to very high risk. If developed successfully, intervention techniques, using genetic modification, could increase the resilience of reefs to multiple stressors. Potential for negative consequences of these techniques exists, but the consequences are considered to be minor under the constraints of the current research program and management arrangements. A decrease in the risk of incidental catch of species of conservation concern is likely to continue from the planned phase-out of gillnet fishing and the implementation of independent data validation in commercial fisheries.
Heritage:
Since 2019, the level of risk relating to behaviour affecting heritage values and foundational capacity gaps has increased. Behaviour affecting heritage values may cause serious and permanent damage to Indigenous and historic heritage sites. Increasing co-management and participation of First Nations peoples in decision-making is expected to help reduce risk to heritage values into the future.