9. Risks to the Region’s values

The overall risks to the Region’s ecosystem and heritage values (natural, Indigenous, historic and other) values remain very high and likely to increase in the future, based on current management. The identified threats to the Region’s values are highly variable in space and time and arise from a range of sources. As ecosystem components and heritage values are closely connected, the projected risk for many threats is similar for both values. 

The most serious threats to ecosystem and heritage values are associated with climate change, coastal development, land-based runoff and some aspects of direct use, for example illegal fishing and extraction. Threats associated with climate change, such as sea temperature, ocean acidification, altered weather patterns and rising sea level, have the highest negative impacts and risk levels are also expected to continue increasing into the future. Since 2019, there have been discernible changes in sea temperature, ocean chemistry and specific weather phenomena and these are expected to continue. 

Land-based runoff overall presents a high risk, though implementation of programs and practices to reduce its impacts should see these risks decrease in the future, albeit with a lag time on realisation of the outcomes from work already completed or to come. Threats associated with coastal development remain a high risk to both ecosystem and heritage values under current management, which is generally considered partially effective. 

Management plans, policies and activities are keeping many risk levels stable. For example, strong management of commercial marine tourism and defence activities contribute to an overall assessment of low risk for these direct uses. However, some threats associated with direct use activities pose a serious risk to the Region’s values. For example, illegal fishing and extraction is considered a very high risk to both ecosystem and heritage values, and discarded catch, incidental catch of species of conservation concern and some extractive fishing activities are considered high risk. Overall, direct use of the Region is assessed as a medium risk the values of the Region. 

Across the assessment, risk posed by two threats has decreased since 2019. Outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish dropped from very high to high risk, as did incidental catch of species of conservation concern. These reductions are a direct reflection of management actions. For example, outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish remain a serious threat to coral reef habitats, but effective coral protection through targeted, sustained and sufficient crown-of-thorns starfish control can contribute to the resilience of this habitat. 

Three risks have increased since 2019 — genetic modification from low to medium, and behaviour affecting heritage values and foundational capacity gaps, both from medium to high. For genetic modification the increase is based on an acceleration of interventions research, as trials occur more often. While it is currently unknown whether this could have potentially negative impacts on wild populations, consequences are considered minor at the moment considering the current research program and existing management controls. It is important that new interventions are underpinned by sound science, calibrated against a range of risk factors (including inaction), consider ethics and the social and cultural acceptability, and are cost effective.

A deeper understanding of the impacts of a lack of agency of First Nations peoples in management of, and differences in access to, Sea Country underpins the increased risk of foundational capacity gaps since 2019. Increasing the agency and capacity of First Nations peoples will be critical to protecting Indigenous and natural heritage values of the Region. Behaviour that impacts heritage values is also understood to occur more frequently than was previously thought and may increase with population growth and use of the Reef. This impact is likely to be highest where users are unaware of the local cultural significance or desired behavioural guidelines from First Nations Traditional Owners. Co-management principles and integration of traditional knowledge into decision-making will be key to reducing risk levels.

Community views on the major threats to the Region’s ecosystem and heritage values are generally aligned with those identified through the risk assessments in this chapter. While climate change is perceived as the greatest threat to the Reef, Catchment residents viewed illegal fishing and land-based runoff as among other serious threats to the Reef and Catchment waterways.

Climate change challenges the natural resilience of the Region’s key habitats through exacerbating both acute and chronic disturbances, shrinking recovery windows and affecting ecological processes that underpin ecosystem resilience. The need to continue to understand and respond to cumulative impacts is crucial. In this way, new tools and approaches can be sought for implementation at Reef-wide, regional and local scales to help look after the Reef in the future.