9. Risks to the Region’s values

The risk level for some threats to the Region’s ecosystems have changed since the assessment presented in the Outlook Report 2019 (Figure 9.4).

Increases in risk: Risk level has increased for three threats: genetic modification, behaviour impacting heritage values, and foundational capacity gaps. Definitions of these threats are available in Appendix 6.

The new medium risk level for genetic modification considers the manipulation and modification of coral and symbiont genetics and is based on the acceleration of intervention research programs. These research programs are designed to have a positive impact by identifying methods to increase the resilience of coral reefs to stressors such as higher sea temperatures and lower ocean pH. Since 2019, small-scale in situ trials have explored the survival of corals and symbionts that have been subject to selective breeding. There are plans to scale up these trials on the Reef (Box 5.4) so that they will occur more than once in a year.

The trials have a degree of risk associated with potential negative impacts that are generally not well understood. Major impacts could occur when modified organisms are released into the wild or when attempts to influence genotype frequencies are implemented. However, a negative impact at this scale remains unlikely under the current program plans and existing management measures. As scientific knowledge and modification techniques advance, and as the results from trial interventions become available, information on the likelihood, and consequential positive and negative impacts, is expected to grow rapidly over the next decade. In 2024, there are no current or planned interventions involving products of synthetic biology entering the Region.

Since 2019, the knowledge of heritage values has increased, and it is now understood that the occurrence of behaviours affecting heritage values is higher than previously thought. The actual occurrence is also likely to have increased due to population growth and increasing recreational activities (Section 5.5.1). Despite improvements in the integration of Indigenous and historic heritage values into decision-making since 2019 (Chapter 7), undesirable behaviours that affect intangible and tangible Indigenous and historic heritage are likely to occur each year. The likelihood of impact from this threat is higher at sites where visitors are unaware of the local Indigenous cultural significance or desired behavioural guidelines from Traditional Owners.

The scale and longevity of these impacts will vary depending on the nature, frequency and intensity of the undesirable presence or behaviour. Increasing the awareness and incorporation of Indigenous heritage information in decision-making (for example, through co-management principles) may help reduce this likelihood.

Improved understanding of the impacts from foundational capacity gaps elevated the consequence of this threat to major in 2024. Indigenous heritage values are compromised due to the lack of agency and access by First Nations people to manage their Country. This is especially apparent where differences in power dynamics, inequalities and inequities exist within Reef management and society more broadly.¹⁹⁵⁸ Further restraints, such as remoteness of Country, skill gaps, equipment and safe transport contribute to capacity gaps. Self-agency is essential to avoid and mitigate the risk of fragmentation of cultural knowledge. Through co-management principles, managing agencies can continue to build an enabling environment and increase opportunities for Traditional Owners to protect Land and Sea Country with benefits for ecosystem and heritage values.^77,1962

An improved understanding around the nature, intensity, distribution and impact of the three threats with increased risk levels — genetic modification, behaviour impacting heritage values and foundational capacity gaps — would better inform management decisions.

Reductions in assessed risk: The likelihood of incidental catch of species of conservation concern in fishing activities has decreased due to the planned phase-out of gillnets in the Reef by 2027, which was enacted by the Fisheries and Other Legislation (Structural Reform) Amendment Regulation 2023. Efforts to implement independent data validation in commercial fisheries will improve understanding of the occurrence of this threat. It is likely that this risk level will continue to reduce across the next 3 years as the phased plan is implemented. 

The risk level associated with crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks has reduced since 2019 from very high to high. This reduction is driven by management actions including proactive surveillance and targeted culling by the Crown-of-thorns Starfish Control Program, coupled with improved understanding of the program’s effectiveness.¹⁸⁷ Benefits have also accrued from past establishment of no-take zones, which protect starfish predators ^828,1012 and enhance recovery from outbreaks,¹⁹⁷⁴ and from additional protection measures for predators implemented through fisheries reforms.^828,1251

While it is almost certain that localised crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks will continue to occur, evidence suggests that targeted, sustained, sufficient and early intervention may suppress region-wide outbreaks.¹⁸⁷ Since 2019, increased capacity and improvements to the tools that support decision-making and prioritisation have supported an enhanced control program. Effective coral protection through crown-of-thorns starfish control is an established management tool to enhance ecosystem resilience under a changing climate.

Unchanged risk levels: Ongoing and evolving management of direct use activities has, in general, resulted in stable risk levels for many associated threats (Figure 9.2). The effectiveness of this management limits the risk of impacts on the Region’s values from spills, exotic species, groundings and other threats. Nevertheless, further efforts to reduce the very high and high risk threats from direct use are still needed.

Some fishing-related threats have remained very high or high risk since 2019. Ongoing implementation of the reforms under the Queensland Sustainable Fisheries Strategy 2017–2027, including planned improvements in data collection and validation, remains a high priority and may reduce risk associated with these threats in future. The 2020 stock status assessments highlight that five stocks are depleted. Knowledge gaps remain around the likelihood and consequence of some fishing-related threats.

Climate change continues to be an extremely significant influence on the Region, as reflected in the continued assessment of very high risk levels for the related threats, including sea-temperature increase, altered weather patterns and ocean acidification. Similarly, risk levels for key coastal development-related and land-based runoff-related threats have not changed since 2019. Barriers to flow and modification of coastal habitats continue to be of concern given the implications for functional connectivity among terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems and the delivery of ecological services to the Region. Sediment, nutrient and pesticide runoff remain very high and high risk threats, underscoring the relevance of ongoing efforts to manage these issues.