6. Factors influencing the Region’s values

The Reef is undergoing significant social, economic and environmental change. Cumulative impacts from climate change, land-based runoff, coastal development and direct use can threaten the Region’s natural, Indigenous and other heritage values. Each of these 4 factors is assessed in terms of its impact on ecological, heritage, economic and social values. Understanding of the impacts (and trend in impacts) of these factors has continued to improve since 2019. 

The main drivers of these pressures are economic and population growth. Societal attitudes can underpin social values and the way in which people interact with and value the Reef. Understanding changes in these attitudes can help to shape management approaches. Drivers of change can also lead to positive changes; for example, commitments to large-scale renewable energy by Australian and Queensland governments are driving infrastructure in the Region and will likely contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Technological developments are further leading to new ways to understand, monitor and manage the Reef’s ecosystem.

Of the 4 major influencing factors, climate change continues to have the greatest impact on the Region’s values, with key indicators like seawater temperatures following ongoing trajectories that are directly related to global warming. The impacts of climate change are forecast to become more frequent, severe and widespread, and climate change will amplify the impacts of other threats. The resultant trend is one of increasing cumulative impacts on the Region’s ecological, heritage, economic and social values.

Coastal development has a high impact on ecological and heritage values. Legacy effects of past coastal development, primarily agricultural land uses, barriers to flow, urban development and mining, are still significantly affecting coastal ecosystems adjacent to the Reef. Development is anticipated to increase in line with a growing population, aquaculture is projected to increase within the Catchment, and existing and additional modification to coastal ecosystems and barriers to flow will encroach further upon natural and heritage values in the future. 

The Region continues to be vulnerable to exposure to pollutants (mainly sediments, nutrients and pesticides) transported in land-based runoff resulting from unsustainable agricultural land management practices. Recent improvements in water quality across most inshore marine areas of the Reef are encouraging, despite slow progress towards reducing pollutant loads in adjacent catchments. Wind-driven resuspension of sediments will continue to affect water quality in nearshore areas. Despite lag times with catchment improvements, as well as considerable natural variability, the recovery of nearshore ecosystems is closely linked to improved water quality, as evidenced by the improving condition of seagrass meadows. Sustained water quality improvement remains critical for alleviating the compounding effects of climate change.

Across the multitude of direct uses of the Region, the Reef’s values are exposed to a variety of pressures, including local and widespread impacts. There have been changes across direct uses, driven by increasing population, the COVID-19 pandemic, market activity and fisheries reforms. Reductions in direct use through the pandemic have mostly reversed, and certain impacts from fishing remain. The cumulative impacts of extraction and damage to the Reef by direct use, coupled with broad influences of climate change and smaller recovery windows, will affect ecosystem resilience. It is critical that management actions effectively address direct use impacts to support the resilience of the Reef’s ecosystems. 

The success of Reef-dependent industries, such as commercial fishing and marine tourism, may be seriously affected by the major pressures on the Region. Knowledge gaps remain regarding the specific scale and nature of these effects. Cumulative impacts can also affect people’s health, wellbeing, enjoyment, personal connection and appreciation of the Reef.